Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x718f…f25a other 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$305 (+4%) realized +$682 · open −$377
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$561
14 days+$216
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$90
sports 15% −$445
finance 10% −$69
tech 7% +$278
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.0% -11.3% 32% 32% +12.1%
≤30d 105 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 38% -6.3%
≤90d 113 -13.3% -21.5% 42% 37% -6.3%
all 113 -13.3% -21.5% 42% 37% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 37% -6.3%
10% -29.1% 34% -15.3%
15% -35.9% 26% -23.5%
20% -42.2% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$37 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$682
Unrealized−$377
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 66
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)113 / 120
History coverage37d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Up 68¢ 56¢ $411 $334 −$77 (-19%)
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? Up 75¢ 43¢ $152 $87 −$65 (-43%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Up 66¢ 56¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 25? Up 83¢ 100¢ $42 $50 +$9 (+20%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 25? Down 51¢ 10¢ $256 $50 −$206 (-80%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 26? Down 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 25? Down 34¢ 8¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $114 −$45 -40%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $138 −$138 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $149 −$149 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $294 +$264 +90%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $57 +$443 +777%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $69 +$84 +122%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $312 +$89 +29%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $136 +$59 +44%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $100 −$41 -41%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $45 −$25 -56%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 23 $202 +$209 +103%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$40 +79%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $130 +$316 +243%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 +$12 +48%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $384 −$384 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $272 +$89 +33%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$28 +128%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $183 +$220 +120%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +96%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $278 −$276 -99%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $113 +$6 +6%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $173 −$21 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +393%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $212 −$179 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 66¢ $68 24m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 70¢ $140 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 72¢ $74 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 75¢ $153 1h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 79¢ $80 2h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 21¢ $21 2h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 33¢ $198 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Down 32¢ $238 2h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 22¢ $23 3h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 34¢ $36 3h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 16¢ $2 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 16¢ $3 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 17¢ $6 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 19¢ $20 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 19¢ $20 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 17¢ $3 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 17¢ $1 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 18¢ $3 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 18¢ $35 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 17¢ $26 6h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 16¢ $12 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 25? SELL Up 30¢ $69 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 17¢ $36 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 16¢ $42 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.46 · official $632.00 · 541 history records