Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x718f…1ebb other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+1%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%40W / 6L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$74
sports 31% +$79
politics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.4% -8.3% 95% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 23 +1.4% -8.2% 96% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 39 +3.1% -6.7% 90% 8% -8.7%
all 46 +2.8% -7.0% 87% 15% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 15% -8.7%
10% -15.9% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.0% 9% -25.5%
20% -31.5% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×21.99 per $1 lost it wins $21.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses40 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage248d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $337 +$17 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $255 +$5 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $345 +$5 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $333 +$9 +3%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $335 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $332 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,992 +$1 +0%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 16 $329 +$5 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $314 +$8 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $319 +$2 +1%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $625 +$7 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $301 +$6 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,345 +$19 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $276 +$6 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $539 +$7 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $375 +$10 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $260 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $831 +$4 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,720 +$5 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $275 −$3 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $274 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $137 +$4 +3%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 20 $257 +$6 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $263 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $251 +$5 +2%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $257 +$1 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $257 +$1 +0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $256 +$1 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $251 +$2 +1%
Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-03-07? May 05 $249 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $248 +$2 +1%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $238 +$6 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $3 +$2 +46%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Pistons May 01 $2 $0 +14%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 25 $244 +$2 +1%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $239 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Apr 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $477 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-20? Jan 23 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Malawi win on 2025-10-13? Jan 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-10-13? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-13? Jan 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $12 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $98 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $260 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $255 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $244 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $223 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $19 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $249 4h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $100 4h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $345 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $138 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 98¢ $195 20h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $337 20h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $47 21h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $89 21h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $198 21h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 99¢ $0 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $307 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $27 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $332 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $331 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records