Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x718e…c203 other 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,709 (-1%) realized −$1,710 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%33W / 149L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,859per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$24
14 days−$35
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,974
politics 36% −$161
sports 13% +$380
world 2% −$6
culture 1% −$7
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +12.1% +1.4% 17% 15% -9.3%
≤90d 146 -3.8% -13.0% 10% 7% -10.4%
all 182 +4.7% -5.3% 18% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 13% -10.0%
10% -14.3% 13% -18.6%
15% -22.6% 12% -26.5%
20% -30.2% 11% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,653) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$23 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$1,710
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses33 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,859
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,707 −$6 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $6,184 −$6 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,275 −$7 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,609 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $815 +$5 +1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,204 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,943 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,467 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,447 −$6 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $912 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $60 +$61 +101%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,455 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,882 −$8 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $53 +$71 +134%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $60 +$63 +105%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,226 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,932 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $5,605 −$7 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $4,012 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5,500 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,345 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,653 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,834 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $9,642 −$11 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $66 +$41 +62%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,720 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $60 +$46 +76%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $75 +$51 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $49 +$68 +140%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,860 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 19 $765 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 7h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 9h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 25h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 27h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $211 27h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 28h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 32h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 33h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,041 3d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 4d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 7d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,077 8d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,079 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,118 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,012 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.16 · official $164.16 (match) · 680 history records