Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x718d…2b46 sports 1366 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,834 (-10%) realized −$5,783 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%685W / 668L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day41.7pace
Fees−$735est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$368
7 days+$47
14 days−$397
30 days−$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,913
other 8% −$5
politics 0% −$7
world 0% −$48
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 42% -8.1%
≤30d 440 -5.5% -14.5% 51% 50% -12.5%
≤90d 1353 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 49% -14.0%
all 1353 -8.6% -17.3% 51% 49% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 49% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 46% -22.2%
15% -32.4% 39% -29.8%
20% -39.1% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$5,783
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses685 / 668
Est. fees paid−$735
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1353 / 1366
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day41.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $46 $42 −$3 (-7%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $41 $34 −$8 (-18%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-27%)
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $4 −$12 (-77%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 321 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$46 +96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $151 +$124 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 −$14 -48%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 −$24 -93%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $28 +$24 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$23 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$17 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $134 −$133 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $48 +$12 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $87 −$30 -34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 −$38 -68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $130 −$80 -62%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $34 +$29 +83%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $91 +$24 +26%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $65 +$45 +70%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$15 +60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$14 +54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$25 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $23 +$11 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $37 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 25¢ $31 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 10h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists AND Eberechi Eze: 1+ shots BUY 16¢ $58 10h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $15 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $19 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $151 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $43 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 16h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $41 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $30 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $0 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $14 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $47 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $60 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $62 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.57 · official $320.69 · 3500 history records