Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x718b…92cc sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$88 (+20%) realized +$92 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$47
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$41
sports 23% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 25% -24.3%
≤30d 5 +278.1% +242.1% 60% 40% +21.7%
≤90d 5 +278.1% +242.1% 60% 40% +21.7%
all 13 +45.4% +31.6% 23% 15% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 15% -4.0%
10% +19.0% 8% -13.2%
15% +7.5% 8% -21.6%
20% -3.0% 8% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +170% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$15 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage110d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 −$65 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $119 +$25 +21%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $20 +$2 +9%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$151 +1506%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $76 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $140 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $22 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $161 13d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 109d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 109d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 109d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 109d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 109d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 109d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 109d
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves BUY Grizzlies 10¢ $10 109d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 24¢ $10 109d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $20 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.36 · official $56.36 (match) · 27 history records