Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7187…0df2 crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate97%121W / 4L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$30
crypto 37% +$15
other 0% +$4
tech 0% +$1
world 0% −$1
economics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 25 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 125 +4.5% -5.5% 97% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 17% -9.3%
10% -14.5% 10% -18.0%
15% -22.8% 5% -25.9%
20% -30.3% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses121 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)125 / 132
History coverage616d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 18? May 26 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? May 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 02 $157 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 29 $156 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 23 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $153 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $173 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 24? Mar 25 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 19? Mar 20 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 18 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 12 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6? Mar 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 05 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 23? Feb 24 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 20 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 15? Feb 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 7? Feb 08 $168 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $102,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on January 23? Jan 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 20? Jan 21 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $176 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 5d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $3 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $110 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $171 31d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $6 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $157 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $153 61d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $160 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $153 69d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 69d
Will Solana reach $150 in April? BUY No 99¢ $7 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $173 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $164 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $164 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $164 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $173 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $169 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $163 88d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $4 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.65 · official $107.65 (match) · 335 history records