Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:59:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7187…ec1b crypto 74 markets active 16h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-13%) realized −$256 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$230
other 17% −$61
politics 6% +$5
world 2% −$24
sports 1% −$15
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.6% -53.5% 33% 33% -35.8%
≤30d 9 -48.6% -53.5% 33% 33% -35.8%
≤90d 9 -48.6% -53.5% 33% 33% -35.8%
all 70 -25.7% -32.8% 34% 33% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 33% -24.7%
10% -39.2% 26% -31.9%
15% -45.1% 23% -38.5%
20% -50.5% 20% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage180d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 17 $47 +$7 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 +$17 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$31 -63%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$6 -15%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $23 −$11 -50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 15 $31 −$25 -82%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 15 $70 −$11 -16%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 15 $24 −$11 -44%
Solana Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 15 $30 −$26 -86%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 14 $31 −$14 -44%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 14 $35 −$5 -14%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 14 $48 +$33 +68%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 14 $106 −$20 -19%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 14 $35 −$20 -57%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 14 $46 +$13 +27%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 14 $64 −$24 -38%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 14 $51 −$26 -52%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 14 $34 −$13 -38%
Solana Up or Down - February 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 13 $35 −$18 -52%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $87 −$3 -4%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 13 $60 −$46 -77%
Solana Up or Down - February 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 13 $31 −$18 -58%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 12 $68 −$11 -17%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 12 $48 −$20 -42%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 12 $56 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 12 $30 +$8 +28%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 12 $29 −$28 -96%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 12 $15 +$3 +20%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 12 $29 +$13 +46%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 12 $47 +$25 +53%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 12 $15 +$12 +83%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 12 $17 +$35 +203%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 11 $27 −$16 -61%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $15 +$16 +104%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 11 $15 −$4 -28%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 11 $37 +$22 +58%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 11 $18 −$13 -71%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 10 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 45¢ $4 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 31h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $11 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 6d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 51¢ $5 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.68 · official $63.69 (match) · 437 history records