Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x7187…f08b crypto 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,119 (+3%) realized +$4,003 · open +$1,116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%117W / 139L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$743per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$1,107est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$6,669
30 days+$4,451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$2,423
world 26% +$6,232
sports 12% +$4,691
finance 9% +$450
crypto 4% −$284
politics 1% +$40
weather 0% +$86
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +81.0% +63.8% 100% 100% +63.8%
≤30d 99 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 42% -2.9%
≤90d 228 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 38% -4.2%
all 256 +13.8% +2.9% 46% 39% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 39% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.9% 38% -13.2%
15% -15.9% 34% -21.6%
20% -24.2% 30% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$107 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$33,657
Realized+$4,003
Unrealized+$1,116
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses117 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,107
Open positions12
Markets (closed)256 / 268
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$743
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $15,096 $15,203 +$106 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5,638 $5,540 −$98 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $4,185 $4,220 +$35 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4,352 $3,925 −$427 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $2,423 $3,710 +$1,287 (+53%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 13¢ $451 $691 +$240 (+53%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 47¢ 38¢ $260 $213 −$47 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 74¢ 73¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 64¢ 90¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 34¢ 66¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 33¢ 57¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 24 $52 +$42 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9,351 +$3,865 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3,641 +$1,044 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3,498 +$1,591 +46%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,706 −$66 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $486 +$484 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $236 −$230 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $123 −$47 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $31 +$23 +74%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 06 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? Jun 06 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 06 $29 +$40 +138%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $673 −$23 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $64 in June? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -57%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 June 1-7? Jun 04 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $2,057 +$390 +19%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $131 +$197 +150%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $140 +$195 +139%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $257 +$606 +236%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17,588 +$380 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 31 $2,913 +$838 +29%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $102 +$89 +87%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $191 −$165 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $921 −$476 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $5 +$6 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $93 +$85 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 37¢ $10 10m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $10 14m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $10 14m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $10 15m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $10 19m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $10 19m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 39¢ $21 23m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 74¢ $20 24m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 42¢ $10 45m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 43¢ $10 45m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 43¢ $10 45m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $10 46m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $10 47m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $10 47m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 64¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 64¢ $10 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 34¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 34¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 63¢ $5 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 48¢ $189 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 36¢ $48 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 37¢ $52 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 46¢ $52 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 47¢ $52 22h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $82 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 59¢ $51 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $4 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $52 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $406 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,656.80 · official $33,658.16 (match) · 3500 history records