Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7187…4859 other 381 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$159 (+1%) realized +$93 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate27%111W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$207
14 days+$13
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$200
economics 22% −$69
world 3% +$45
tech 2% +$6
crypto 1% −$82
sports 1% +$169
politics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -52.8% -57.3% 12% 12% -21.4%
≤30d 139 -30.8% -37.4% 18% 18% -8.6%
≤90d 276 -21.9% -29.3% 21% 18% -8.8%
all 415 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 15% -9.8%
10% -31.6% 13% -18.4%
15% -38.2% 10% -26.3%
20% -44.3% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses111 / 304
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)415 / 381
History coverage238d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 25¢ 42¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+69%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 46¢ 48¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $29 $41 +$12 (+40%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 32¢ 32¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 79¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$3 -157%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$5 -127%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 55m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 55m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 55m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 56m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 57m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 57m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 11h
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $20 15h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 75¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $41 19h
ITF Milano: Florent Bax vs Stefano D'agostino BUY Florent Bax 71¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $53 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $10 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $10 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $10 21h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 46¢ $20 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $12 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.19 · official $491.16 (match) · 2454 history records