Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x7186…be09 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR88%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +88%

net ROI/market (all)+42.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+56.9%	+42.0%	88%	88%	+35.9%
≤30d	8	+56.9%	+42.0%	88%	88%	+35.9%
≤90d	8	+56.9%	+42.0%	88%	88%	+35.9%
all	8	+56.9%	+42.0%	88%	88%	+35.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.0%	88%	+35.9%
10%	+28.4%	50%	+22.9%
15%	+16.0%	38%	+11.0%
20%	+4.6%	38%	+0.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$25 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×9.71 per $1 lost it wins $9.71

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$22	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 18	$102	+$35	+34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 18	$114	+$98	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 18	$19	+$54	+284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 18	$31	+$29	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 18	$27	+$5	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 18	$20	+$4	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 18	$25	−$25	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$101	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$102	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$114	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$25	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records