Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

71 0x7182…78ba crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized −$11 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$76per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-31.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	0%	-13.2%
≤30d	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	0%	-13.2%
≤90d	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	0%	-13.2%
all	4	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	0%	-13.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.6%	0%	-13.2%
10%	-38.2%	0%	-21.5%
15%	-44.1%	0%	-29.1%
20%	-49.6%	0%	-36.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.37 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$211

Realized−$11

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$76

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	70¢	82¢	$121	$144	+$23 (+19%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	82¢	81¢	$68	$68	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 27	$129	−$12	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 27	$100	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 27	$30	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$69	48m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$96	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$100	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	57¢	$22	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.47 · official $211.48 (match) · 16 history records