Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7181…c5f5 other 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized −$7 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$41
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$96
sports 34% −$35
crypto 22% −$23
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +4.9% -5.1% 38% 36% -1.8%
≤30d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 35% -13.0%
≤90d 55 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 35% -13.0%
all 73 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 38% -6.8%
10% -17.0% 36% -15.7%
15% -25.0% 33% -23.9%
20% -32.4% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 81
History coverage240d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 97¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+42%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+23%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 54¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $31 $26 −$5 (-17%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$13 +650%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 $0 -5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$14 -86%
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$11 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$12 +53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $24 +$9 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$56 +155%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $48 +$19 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 +$10 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$10 -20%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $27 +$32 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $9 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $32 27h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $32 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $32 28h
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 72¢ $31 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 30h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 32¢ $3 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 31h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $24 31h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 36h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will United Sta BUY 45¢ $22 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $22 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $43 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 90¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.13 · official $143.13 (match) · 195 history records