Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7181…8dc7 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$219 (+0%) realized +$631 · open −$412
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,869per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days+$1,972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,355
sports 17% +$1,500
crypto 4% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +46.9% +32.9% 40% 40% -12.3%
≤30d 9 +61.3% +45.9% 44% 44% +30.3%
≤90d 18 +74.4% +57.8% 33% 33% -11.6%
all 26 +46.9% +32.9% 42% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.9% 35% -8.4%
10% +20.2% 27% -17.2%
15% +8.6% 27% -25.2%
20% -2.1% 23% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +82% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$614 vs −$410 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$3,326
Realized+$631
Unrealized−$412
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage232d
Avg bet$1,869
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,020 $2,577 −$443 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $547 +$47 (+9%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $218 $202 −$16 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $305 +$384 +126%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$838 +409%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-31? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1,437 −$218 -15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $260 −$8 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $502 +$1,193 +238%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $999 +$1,060 +106%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 23 $1,495 −$1,495 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 22 $186 −$186 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 22 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Mar 22 $997 −$997 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Mar 22 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $1,737 +$619 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $50 +$726 +1452%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $1,029 +$208 +20%
No airdrop in 2025? Mar 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Mar 21 $998 −$998 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $30 −$18 -61%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $1,511 +$177 +12%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $502 +$487 +97%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $6,000 +$576 +10%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $29,964 +$487 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 33¢ $223 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $305 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,043 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 46¢ $252 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 54¢ $252 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $260 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $687 19d
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $1,184 19d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $498 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $1,021 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2,059 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $999 34d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $502 44d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $205 67d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $2,356 89d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 73¢ $1,737 89d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $898 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $339 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $276 90d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 55¢ $276 90d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $753 90d
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports $50 90d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX $40 91d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL Team Secret Whales $12 93d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY Team Secret Whales $30 93d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $717 93d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $144 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,326.31 · official $3,326.31 (match) · 239 history records