Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:34:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x717f…a529 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%36W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$10
crypto 7% +$1
other 4% −$4
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses36 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage546d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $28 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $5,202 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4000 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1? Feb 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $17 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 16 $17 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Feb 13 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 11 $19 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Drake Maye win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 29 $48 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 60d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 148d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $20 243d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 271d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 302d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 333d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 363d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $7 425d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $7 426d
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.79 · official $36.79 (match) · 108 history records