Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x717f…e267 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 365d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$13
other 17% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 12% +$1
economics 5% +$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +69.3% +53.1% 38% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 65 +31.1% +18.6% 40% 3% -9.1%
all 79 +40.5% +27.1% 46% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.1% 4% -9.0%
10% +14.9% 3% -17.7%
15% +3.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -6.4% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

365d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage365d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $46 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 +$5 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $57 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $52 −$7 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $20 +$3 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $89 +$9 +10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $55 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $45 $0 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $23 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $23 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $52 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $23 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $38 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 336 history records