Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7178…40ce finance 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$209 (-8%) realized −$209 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% $0
economics 36% −$1
crypto 8% −$210
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 0% -24.7%
all 5 -18.2% -25.9% 40% 0% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -16.4%
10% -33.0% 0% -24.4%
15% -39.5% 0% -31.7%
20% -45.4% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$106 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage108d
Avg bet$553
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1,000 −$1 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? May 27 $12 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 01 $210 −$210 -100%
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 01 $1,513 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $999 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1,000 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? BUY Up 99¢ $30 20d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $210 77d
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 92¢ $12 108d
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,513 108d
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,513 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records