Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7177…790f crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+8%) realized +$47 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 49% +4.3%
≤30d 39 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 49% +4.3%
≤90d 39 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 49% +4.3%
all 39 +8.6% -1.8% 51% 49% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 49% +4.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -5.7%
15% -19.8% 46% -14.8%
20% -27.6% 46% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$45 +162%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$10 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$32 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$17 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$8 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$4 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $320 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $28 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.19 · official $4.19 (match) · 73 history records