Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7175…ae4e sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,249 (+6%) realized +$3,087 · open +$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%181W / 104L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$312
14 days−$538
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2,048
finance 18% +$537
sports 11% +$489
other 10% −$37
politics 8% +$100
weather 7% −$304
crypto 0% −$15
tech 0% −$30
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +8.8% -1.6% 52% 45% -20.5%
≤30d 137 -12.1% -20.4% 54% 44% -12.0%
≤90d 254 +10.1% -0.4% 64% 48% -6.1%
all 285 +7.0% -3.2% 64% 45% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 45% -4.4%
10% -12.5% 31% -13.5%
15% -20.9% 21% -21.9%
20% -28.7% 18% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$30 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$5,585
Realized+$3,087
Unrealized+$162
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses181 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions63
Markets (closed)285 / 348
History coverage117d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $1,261 $1,414 +$153 (+12%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $723 $745 +$22 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $901 $679 −$222 (-25%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $250 $376 +$127 (+51%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $252 $254 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $183 $222 +$40 (+22%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $186 $184 −$2 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $179 $174 −$6 (-3%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 85¢ $154 $160 +$6 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $118 $122 +$5 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $118 $112 −$6 (-5%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $97 $105 +$8 (+8%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $67 $71 +$5 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $61 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 57¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $32 $42 +$10 (+31%)
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $348 −$343 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $85 −$54 -63%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$17 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +299%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 +$46 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $154 +$16 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $69 +$150 +219%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $150 +$140 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$38 +178%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $149 +$51 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 +$34 +223%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$48 +418%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $129 +$71 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$76 +220%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$20 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $8 +$2 +18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $196 +$14 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$81 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 09 $45 +$38 +86%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $64 −$43 -66%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $285 +$6 +2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $951 +$29 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 09 $394 +$63 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $110 45m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $221 45m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $188 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $145 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $348 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $57 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $29 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $56 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 45¢ $9 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $18 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $6 9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 10h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 35¢ $18 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,584.74 · official $5,584.75 (match) · 1143 history records