Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x7173…060a other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$780 (+30%) realized +$732 · open +$48

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$864per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+13.1%	+2.4%	50%	50%	+20.9%
≤90d	2	+13.1%	+2.4%	50%	50%	+20.9%
all	2	+13.1%	+2.4%	50%	50%	+20.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.4%	50%	+20.9%
10%	-7.4%	50%	+9.3%
15%	-16.4%	0%	-1.2%
20%	-24.6%	0%	-10.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$751 vs −$0 · ×2875.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2875.63 per $1 lost it wins $2875.63

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$403

Realized+$732

Unrealized+$48

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage13d

Avg bet$864

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	66¢	75¢	$354	$403	+$48 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$2,230	+$751	+34%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$4	$0	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY No	66¢	$358	1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	92¢	$2,982	8d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	69¢	$3	13d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	37¢	$3	13d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	68¢	$95	13d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	38¢	$4	13d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	68¢	$2,132	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.64 · official $402.64 (match) · 7 history records