Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7170…9bbc world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$9
other 19% −$9
sports 7% +$8
politics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 7% -10.9%
≤90d 16 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 6% -10.7%
all 35 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 6% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 3% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage257d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $154 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $5 +$1 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $36 −$13 -37%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $11 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $111 +$2 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $64 −$9 -15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $31 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $23 +$8 +35%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $2 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $2 $0 -15%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 06 $23 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $66 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 22d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 5¢ $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $43 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $43 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $65 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $65 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $11 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $50 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $59 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $25 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $20 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.81 · official $44.81 (match) · 146 history records