Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7170…b959 politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,050 (+1%) realized +$1,051 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$42
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$44
other 39% +$243
sports 15% +$848
culture 3% −$7
world 2% −$21
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 38 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 101 -14.3% -22.4% 2% 1% -11.2%
all 146 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 8% -9.1%
10% -16.3% 8% -17.8%
15% -24.4% 8% -25.7%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$24 · ×6.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$1,051
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $361 $360 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,575 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $603 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,753 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,959 −$5 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,027 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $867 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $49 −$49 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $58 +$41 +70%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,766 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $475 +$2 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $3,631 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,166 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,272 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $676 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $4,115 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,519 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $1,254 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $4,364 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $639 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $640 3h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $590 5h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $590 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $724 26h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $725 28h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $599 29h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $600 32h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $708 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $709 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $582 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $583 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $592 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $592 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $602 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $603 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $682 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $683 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $361 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $912 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $701 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $702 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $801 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $803 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $915 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $916 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $865 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.05 · official $360.05 (match) · 475 history records