trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $16,015 | $0 | −$16,015 (-100%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $13,460 | $0 | −$13,460 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | Jun 22 | $13,461 | −$13,460 | -100% |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? | Jun 09 | $16,015 | −$16,015 | -100% |
| US recession in 2025? | Jun 05 | $1,981 | −$629 | -32% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 09 | $300 | +$794 | +265% |
| Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? | Apr 07 | $250 | −$189 | -76% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? | Mar 13 | $5,162 | +$287 | +6% |
| Canada election called before April? | Mar 07 | $846 | −$148 | -18% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Feb 09 | $58,159 | −$58,159 | -100% |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Feb 09 | $1,330 | −$1,330 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | Jan 21 | $666 | −$666 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 10 | -35.4% | -41.6% | 20% | 10% | -92.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -41.6% | 10% | -92.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -47.2% | 10% | -92.8% |
| 15% | -52.3% | 10% | -93.5% |
| 20% | -57.0% | 10% | -94.1% |