Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x716c…f855 tech 3 markets active 5d ago coverage 45d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$122 · open −$121

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$168per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+42.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
≤30d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
≤90d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
all	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.0%	100%	+42.0%
10%	+28.4%	100%	+28.4%
15%	+16.0%	100%	+16.0%
20%	+4.6%	100%	+4.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$113 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage

Net worth$179

Realized+$122

Unrealized−$121

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage45d

Avg bet$168

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	61¢	57¢	$100	$95	−$5 (-5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	Yes	57¢	24¢	$200	$84	−$116 (-58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	Jun 11	$199	+$113	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	57¢	$203	4d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	SELL No	96¢	$312	4d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	BUY No	61¢	$199	50d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.52 · official $178.52 (match) · 4 history records