Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x716c…32f3
crypto · 119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$54 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses64 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage3d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day95.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Up 69¢ 54¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$7 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$91
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 36% -20.6%
≤30d 118 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 118 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 36% -20.6%
all 118 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover95.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 36% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 23% -28.2%
15% -33.7% 17% -35.2%
20% -40.2% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $2.35 (match) · 360 history records