Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x716b…9fcf weather 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+3%) realized +$58 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate82%104W / 23L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$4
14 days+$24
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$28
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -2.8% -12.0% 76% 71% -10.3%
≤30d 127 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 74% -5.5%
≤90d 127 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 74% -5.5%
all 127 +3.9% -6.0% 82% 74% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 74% -5.5%
10% -15.0% 31% -14.6%
15% -23.2% 14% -22.8%
20% -30.7% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses104 / 23
Open positions16
Markets (closed)127 / 143
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 16? No 66¢ 94¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? No 66¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? No 86¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? No 66¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? No 66¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 44¢ 39¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? No 86¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 78¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? No 86¢ 19¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? No 40¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 82¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $8 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $0 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 44¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? BUY No 40¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.70 · official $90.70 (match) · 335 history records