Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x716b…041b crypto 738 markets active 3d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$257 (-1%) realized −$257 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%368W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days−$140
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$644
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 50% -16.7%
≤30d 660 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 738 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 49% -12.4%
all 738 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 49% -12.4%
10% -22.0% 49% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 47% -28.4%
20% -36.5% 44% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses368 / 370
Open positions0
Markets (closed)738 / 738
History coverage66d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 738 Trades
no open positions (336 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$23 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $78 −$36 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1318 history records