Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x716a…f358 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 439d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,117 (-17%) realized −$1,129 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$1,005
other 43% −$2,171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +61.1% +45.7% 100% 100% +43.0%
≤30d 3 +61.1% +45.7% 100% 100% +43.0%
≤90d 4 +20.8% +9.3% 75% 75% +40.3%
all 15 -34.4% -40.6% 40% 40% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 40% -29.3%
10% -46.3% 40% -36.1%
15% -51.5% 33% -42.3%
20% -56.3% 13% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$265 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$1,129
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage439d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $251 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes $4 $6 +$2 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 27 $131 +$90 +68%
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $117 +$82 +70%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 22 $211 +$95 +45%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz che Aug 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Wesley So win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tournament Aug 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Awonder Liang win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Aug 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Aug 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tourna Aug 12 $295 −$295 -100%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess tou Aug 11 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $1,569 −$1,569 -100%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $320 −$60 -19%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 18 $1,827 +$772 +42%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 04 $219 +$97 +44%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20? Apr 20 $229 +$75 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 37¢ $75 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 2h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 47¢ $221 7h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 19h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $57 19h
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 19h
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 21h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 21h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 23h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 23h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 37¢ $181 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 30h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $55 30h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 30h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 30h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 30h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 30h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 31h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 31h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 31h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 31h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 40¢ $27 31h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 31h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 31h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 31h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 21¢ $28 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.98 · official $322.98 (match) · 138 history records