Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x7169…aaf5 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-18%) realized −$301 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,071now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$132
crypto 33% −$7
other 16% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -39.6% -45.3% 17% 17% -51.2%
≤30d 6 -39.6% -45.3% 17% 17% -51.2%
≤90d 6 -39.6% -45.3% 17% 17% -51.2%
all 6 -39.6% -45.3% 17% 17% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 17% -51.2%
10% -50.6% 17% -55.9%
15% -55.4% 17% -60.1%
20% -59.7% 17% -64.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$115 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,071
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $530 $523 −$7 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$263 +262%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $188 −$184 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $100 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $62 1h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 2d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $98 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $188 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $545 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,071.28 · official $1,071.28 (match) · 18 history records