Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x7169…3ca6
other · 1103 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$61 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses651 / 436
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1087 / 1103
History coverage262d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 16 History 1087 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$28
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? No 83¢ 81¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video? No 83¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? No 85¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? No 88¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? No 85¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? No 58¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? No 84¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? No 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? No 77¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next YouTube video? No 88¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? No 33¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? No 78¢ 75¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? No 79¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $9 +$4 +47%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will "Disruptive" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 13 $12 +$4 +37%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Insurance" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +203%
Will "Gold" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Wisconsin events? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Muslim" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Will "Magic" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will Trump say "Fuel" during Wisconsin events? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oracle say "Fusion" 10+ times during earnings call? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +204%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Wisconsin even Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oracle say "Temu" during earnings call? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +41%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rally? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "South Carolina" 7+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kuwait" this week? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 11 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Oracle say "Growth" during earnings call? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tim Cook say "Privilege" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 09 $1 $0 +26%
Will Tim Cook say "Apple Pay" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 09 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Tim Cook say "Streaming" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June Jun 09 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Tim Cook say "Gemini" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8t Jun 09 $19 +$2 +11%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Trump say "Game" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Scam" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +92%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +44%
Will anyone say "Bunker" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Trump say "Scam" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump say "Corn" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Surplus" during Wisconsin events? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions Jun 05 $2 +$1 +76%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 05 $3 +$1 +45%
Will "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podc Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Senate" be in the headlines this week? Jun 03 $2 $0 +18%
Will "Insurance" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Energy" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Blockade" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Vance say "Iraq" during Air Force Academy Address? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% −$63
politics 30% +$65
tech 8% −$38
world 7% −$189
crypto 5% +$46
finance 5% −$13
sports 3% +$38
culture 3% +$44
economics 3% +$55
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? BUY No 40¢ $1 59m
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY No 78¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? BUY No 85¢ $2 1h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? BUY No 84¢ $2 3h
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? BUY No 85¢ $2 3h
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? BUY No 83¢ $2 3h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 79¢ $2 3h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 89¢ $2 3h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 84¢ $1 3h
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 87¢ $2 5h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 87¢ $3 5h
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 89¢ $3 5h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 64¢ $2 5h
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 85¢ $2 5h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 33¢ $1 5h
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 30¢ $2 5h
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 85¢ $1 7h
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 76¢ $1 8h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 83¢ $2 8h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 84¢ $2 8h
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 85¢ $2 8h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 89¢ $1 16h
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 79¢ $1 16h
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo BUY No 30¢ $1 20h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL No 48¢ $1 20h
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? BUY No 61¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 57% -6.5%
≤30d 127 -17.4% -25.3% 57% 49% -17.1%
≤90d 391 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 50% -13.2%
all 1087 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 54% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 54% -10.3%
10% -18.4% 36% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 27% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 22% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.23 · official $50.12 (match) · 3480 history records