Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7168…e537 crypto 220 markets active 10h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,468 (-17%) realized −$7,870 · open −$598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%71W / 145L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$232
14 days+$165
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$3,687
politics 29% −$2,370
world 15% −$1,019
economics 8% −$1,113
other 7% −$500
tech 5% −$145
sports 1% −$151
culture 0% +$276
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.4% +13.4% 100% 75% +11.6%
≤30d 14 +46.5% +32.5% 86% 71% -0.1%
≤90d 102 -34.6% -40.9% 34% 24% -27.8%
all 216 -27.6% -34.5% 33% 24% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 24% -24.9%
10% -40.8% 19% -32.1%
15% -46.5% 16% -38.6%
20% -51.8% 13% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$88 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$1,552
Realized−$7,870
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses71 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)216 / 220
History coverage296d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 8¢ $792 $805 +$13 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $977 $582 −$395 (-40%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $330 $155 −$175 (-53%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 51¢ 10¢ $51 $10 −$41 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $174 +$99 +57%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $129 +$35 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $615 +$97 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 11 $77 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $704 +$26 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $163 +$87 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $114 +$59 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $104 +$19 +18%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $410 −$23 -6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $650 −$241 -37%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 22 $403 +$106 +26%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 22 $186 +$100 +54%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 18 $5 +$18 +349%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? May 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 13 $50 −$23 -46%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $203 +$28 +14%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $104 +$75 +73%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $209 −$55 -26%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $52 −$50 -95%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $423 −$411 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 19 $1,000 +$92 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 13-19? Apr 19 $1,875 +$44 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 19 $1,931 −$1,931 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $500 −$57 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $1,812 +$189 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $400 −$372 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $281 +$45 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $500 +$118 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $430 −$82 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $381 −$313 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $100 −$88 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 14 $185 −$115 -62%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $140 −$140 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $100 −$4 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 07 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $27 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $313 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $131 34h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 6¢ $105 35h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $105 35h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 6¢ $105 35h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $105 35h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes 68¢ $134 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 83¢ $164 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 7¢ $18 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 26¢ $130 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $79 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $64 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 35¢ $72 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 63¢ $129 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $77 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 1¢ $195 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $218 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 36¢ $20 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 91¢ $730 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 54¢ $139 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 17¢ $250 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 9¢ $173 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL No 5¢ $123 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 72¢ $694 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $402 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $94 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,551.78 · official $1,551.78 (match) · 946 history records