Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7166…6922 weather 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$544 (-8%) realized −$709 · open +$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%50W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$629now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$169
14 days−$321
30 days−$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$86
other 19% +$147
weather 17% −$213
world 5% −$80
crypto 3% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 35% -27.6%
≤30d 131 -10.4% -18.9% 34% 32% -17.2%
≤90d 173 -11.0% -19.4% 29% 28% -18.5%
all 173 -11.0% -19.4% 29% 28% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 28% -18.5%
10% -27.1% 26% -26.3%
15% -34.2% 25% -33.4%
20% -40.6% 24% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$24 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$629
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$165
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses50 / 123
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)173 / 182
History coverage42d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 68¢ 100¢ $424 $622 +$198 (+47%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 49¢ 10¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-79%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 27¢ 3¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-88%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $228 −$228 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $171 +$129 +75%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$20 +69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $168 +$99 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$23 +742%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 16 $13 $0 +4%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $8 +$12 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $262 −$262 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $147 +$101 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $124 +$74 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$46 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$29 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$19 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$33 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$8 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $55 +$35 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $428 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $38 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $42 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $4 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 57¢ $224 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $300 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $57 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $79 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $87 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $267 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $168 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $0 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 22¢ $34 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 89¢ $26 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $2 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 6d
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Clement Tabur 39¢ $8 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.99 · official $628.99 (match) · 658 history records