Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7163…79f9 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$1
other 39% $0
politics 14% −$2
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 46 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage448d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $75 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $4 −$1 -28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $6 −$3 -43%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $14 $0 -2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m May 28 $13 $0 +2%
Fetterman out in May? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $13 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will the next Pope be from South America? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 06 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $16 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $38 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $37 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $17 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $35 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $26 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $37 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 30d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $5 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 30d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $1 355d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $1 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records