Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x7160…cce2 other 863 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+0%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate81%696W / 167L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$48
14 days+$16
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$167
crypto 8% +$12
tech 5% −$227
weather 4% +$14
sports 3% +$92
culture 2% +$1
politics 1% −$14
finance 0% −$18
world 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 50% -7.4%
≤30d 169 -1.0% -10.4% 62% 30% -9.0%
≤90d 385 +1.0% -8.7% 80% 15% -9.0%
all 863 +0.5% -9.1% 81% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 7% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses696 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)863 / 863
History coverage192d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 863 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $8 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$8 -15%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $70 −$6 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 −$24 -72%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$10 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta Jun 16 $28 +$12 +44%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $41 +$21 +52%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $66 +$37 +56%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $49 +$47 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $49 +$60 +124%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $45 +$24 +53%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$10 +50%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$55 +317%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$18 +203%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 −$2 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $27 +$48 +174%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $76 −$36 -48%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 +$34 +96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $70 +$35 +50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$28 +158%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $32 +$26 +79%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$12 -34%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +33%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$38 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 +$16 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $38 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $38 +$17 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$37 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $78 +$14 +18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 73¢ $7 45m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Game Master 31¢ $46 45m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 28¢ $64 45m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 45m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 12¢ $9 45m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $20 45m
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) SELL KRÜ Blaze 13¢ $12 45m
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 35¢ $54 49m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $16 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 41¢ $33 1h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $22 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 16h
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta BUY ENTER FORCE.36 69¢ $18 17h
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta BUY ENTER FORCE.36 69¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $30 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 51¢ $49 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2482 history records