Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x715e…4a2f sports 212 markets active 18h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%126W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$30
14 days+$72
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$8
crypto 32% −$19
weather 14% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +46.8% +32.8% 51% 44% +0.6%
≤30d 122 +23.1% +11.4% 47% 43% -11.4%
≤90d 212 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 32% -12.3%
all 212 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 32% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 32% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 26% -20.7%
15% -17.0% 19% -28.3%
20% -25.1% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses126 / 86
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)212 / 212
History coverage70d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 212 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $4 +$2 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$5 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 +$8 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +87%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$5 +51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$30 +288%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$8 +77%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$1 -17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$1 -14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +45%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $4 +$1 +35%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -88%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $5 −$5 -92%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$1 -12%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$3 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $4 −$4 -90%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $8 +$15 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $3 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $2 18h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 66¢ $2 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $2 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $2 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $1 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $1 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $2 19h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $2 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 23¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 23¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 24¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 24¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 23¢ $0 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 92¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 92¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 85¢ $1 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 85¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 83¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 67¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 85¢ $0 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner SELL LOS 90¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $0.00 · 1816 history records