Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x715e…4f8a sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+7%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$34
14 days+$37
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$1
tech 25% +$18
other 17% −$5
world 10% +$2
crypto 9% −$1
finance 8% +$16
politics 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 43% +0.4%
≤30d 39 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 41% -1.8%
≤90d 53 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 42% -4.3%
all 53 -2.2% -11.5% 53% 42% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 42% -4.3%
10% -20.0% 38% -13.5%
15% -27.7% 26% -21.9%
20% -34.8% 21% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage35d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +196%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 16 $35 +$14 +41%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$4 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $45 +$4 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +38%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 10 $3 +$3 +85%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -71%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $1 +$1 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1 +$1 +119%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $31 +$1 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $2 +$2 +101%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $10 +$3 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $11 −$8 -74%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 22 $10 +$2 +23%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $3 +$1 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $1 +$3 +258%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $1 +$2 +211%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 20 $1 +$2 +119%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $35 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $10 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 99¢ $35 19h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 79¢ $10 21h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 89¢ $20 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 31h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 44h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $10 44h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 94¢ $50 44h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 44h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 44h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 44h
Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 44h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 45h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.15 · official $40.15 (match) · 129 history records