Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x715e…ee36 weather 1144 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-6%) realized −$192 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%152W / 933L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$100
14 days−$56
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +57.7% +42.7% 19% 19% +40.0%
≤30d 695 -13.3% -21.6% 12% 12% -20.0%
≤90d 1085 +2.7% -7.1% 14% 14% -15.6%
all 1085 +2.7% -7.1% 14% 14% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 14% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 14% -23.7%
15% -24.1% 14% -31.1%
20% -31.5% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×5.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses152 / 933
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1085 / 1144
History coverage60d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 81¢ $2 $23 +$22 (+1250%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 32¢ 97¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+205%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 13¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+161%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+167%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 456 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$28 +585%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$12 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$22 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$28 +1492%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$14 +698%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$12 +465%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$46 +500%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 10 $0 $0 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$25 +1362%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.60 · official $122.53 (match) · 2095 history records