Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

71 0x715d…cfe7 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$41 (+12%) realized +$42 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+16.9%	+5.8%	50%	50%	+3.8%
≤30d	2	+16.9%	+5.8%	50%	50%	+3.8%
≤90d	2	+16.9%	+5.8%	50%	50%	+3.8%
all	2	+16.9%	+5.8%	50%	50%	+3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.8%	50%	+3.8%
10%	-4.4%	50%	-6.1%
15%	-13.6%	50%	-15.2%
20%	-22.1%	0%	-23.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$15 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$141

Realized+$42

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage42d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$142	$141	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$97	+$46	+48%
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Jun 16	$112	−$15	-14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$143	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$97	18h
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	SELL Yes	15¢	$96	18h
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	BUY Yes	16¢	$112	41d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.38 · official $141.38 (match) · 5 history records