Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

71 0x715d…b924 other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$3 (-17%) realized −$3 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip

Net edge-70%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-68.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-64.9%	-68.3%	33%	0%	-26.8%
≤30d	3	-64.9%	-68.3%	33%	0%	-26.8%
≤90d	3	-64.9%	-68.3%	33%	0%	-26.8%
all	3	-64.9%	-68.3%	33%	0%	-26.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-68.3%	0%	-26.8%
10%	-71.3%	0%	-33.8%
15%	-74.1%	0%	-40.2%
20%	-76.6%	0%	-46.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -19% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -65% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$3

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	71¢	68¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$1	+5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2	47h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$5	47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$10	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.82 · official $4.82 (match) · 6 history records