Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7157…7ba4 sports 806 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$558 (+2%) realized +$558 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%332W / 473L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$183
7 days−$867
14 days−$568
30 days−$4,202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$598
crypto 31% −$886
other 13% +$749
world 1% −$13
tech 0% +$14
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -12.8% -21.1% 16% 16% -44.0%
≤30d 178 -46.8% -51.9% 14% 14% -64.4%
≤90d 615 -37.2% -43.2% 25% 25% -44.0%
all 805 +5.0% -5.0% 41% 41% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -8.3%
10% -14.1% 41% -17.1%
15% -22.4% 40% -25.1%
20% -30.0% 40% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$39 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$558
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses332 / 473
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions0
Markets (closed)805 / 806
History coverage180d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 805 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 +$7 +35%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $125 +$75 +60%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 18 $130 −$30 -23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$95 +1900%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 +$93 +1329%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $8 +$92 +1150%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $55 +$45 +82%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $70 −$32 -45%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $50 −$9 -17%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $51 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 45¢ $45 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $45 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2554 history records