Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7155…8529 sports 37 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$19
other 29% $0
crypto 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +68.3% +52.3% 100% 50% +24.0%
≤30d 21 -1.2% -10.6% 57% 33% -2.6%
≤90d 29 +5.8% -4.3% 62% 34% +1.1%
all 29 +5.8% -4.3% 62% 34% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 34% +1.1%
10% -13.5% 24% -8.5%
15% -21.8% 17% -17.4%
20% -29.5% 10% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage42d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 74¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 44¢ 43¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $4 $0 -5%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -29%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $4 $0 +7%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $4 $0 +11%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 31 $4 $0 +3%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Ch May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title May 25 $4 $0 -11%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 24 $4 −$3 -98%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $10 +$1 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $16 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $3 +$1 +39%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $3 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $11 $0 -4%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t May 10 $4 $0 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4 −$1 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 2d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $4 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 35¢ $0 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 44¢ $0 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) SELL Knicks 46¢ $3 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $4 8d
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series SELL Yes 26¢ $2 8d
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series SELL Yes 26¢ $1 8d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 13d
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series BUY Yes 26¢ $4 13d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $4 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 13d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 13d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.08 · official $45.64 (match) · 138 history records