Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7153…99bf other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$110 (+8%) realized +$97 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$142
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$75
sports 42% −$180
world 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 31% -21.7%
≤30d 81 -6.1% -15.0% 32% 31% -19.2%
≤90d 81 -6.1% -15.0% 32% 31% -19.2%
all 85 -8.1% -16.8% 33% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 29% -19.3%
10% -24.8% 28% -27.0%
15% -32.0% 26% -34.1%
20% -38.7% 25% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 57
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage374d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $129 $142 +$13 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$19 -64%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $71 +$48 +67%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $51 −$22 -44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$15 +152%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $20 +$21 +105%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $15 +$13 +86%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $15 +$15 +101%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Second half draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 −$7 -45%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$51 +499%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $21 +$41 +200%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$20 -66%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$7 -58%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$31 +596%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 49m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 21¢ $11 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $121 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 64¢ $119 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $76 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $32 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 28h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 28h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.09 · official $142.09 (match) · 164 history records