trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $66 | $65 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) | Switzerland | 61¢ | 70¢ | $30 | $35 | +$5 (+16%) |
| New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 52¢ | 44¢ | $30 | $26 | −$4 (-14%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Blues vs. Sabres | Sabres | 54¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Senators vs. Flyers | Flyers | 46¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Flames vs. Blues | Flames | 44¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Bruins vs. Sharks | Bruins | 55¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Panthers vs. Sharks | Panthers | 70¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Oilers vs. Panthers | Panthers | 57¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Islanders vs. Rangers | Rangers | 60¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Mariners vs. Blue Jays | Mariners | 84¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Devils vs. Lightning | Devils | 40¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Blue Jackets vs. Oilers | Blue Jackets | 40¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Ducks vs. Wild | Ducks | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Wild vs. Penguins | Penguins | 51¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Stars vs. Senators | Senators | 49¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Islanders vs. Avalanche | Islanders | 35¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Jets vs. Kings | Jets | 47¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Devils vs. Capitals | Capitals | 54¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Lightning vs. Capitals | Capitals | 53¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Oilers vs. Flyers | Flyers | 46¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Senators vs. Kings | Senators | 42¢ | 0¢ | $66 | $0 | −$66 (-100%) |
| Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senators vs. Kings | Nov 25 | $66 | −$66 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 25 | $1 | $0 | -38% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Nov 25 | $3 | $0 | -16% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 25 | $7 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%? | Nov 25 | $2 | +$6 | +304% |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | Nov 25 | $8 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Nov 25 | $18 | −$1 | -6% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens | Nov 24 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | Nov 24 | $2 | +$2 | +113% |
| Bruins vs. Sharks | Nov 23 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Avalanche vs. Blackhawks | Nov 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Flyers | Nov 21 | $2 | +$2 | +85% |
| Oilers vs. Lightning | Nov 21 | $4 | +$3 | +67% |
| Lightning vs. Capitals | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Kraken vs. Penguins | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Panthers | Nov 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Islanders | Nov 21 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Blackhawks vs. Sabres | Nov 21 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Penguins | Nov 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Red Wings | Nov 21 | $2 | +$2 | +117% |
| Hurricanes vs. Wild | Nov 20 | $3 | +$4 | +144% |
| Flames vs. Sabres | Nov 20 | $2 | +$2 | +108% |
| Oilers vs. Capitals | Nov 20 | $4 | +$4 | +92% |
| Bruins vs. Ducks | Nov 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Blues vs. Maple Leafs | Nov 20 | $4 | +$3 | +82% |
| Rangers vs. Avalanche | Nov 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Ducks | Nov 18 | $2 | +$2 | +108% |
| Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets | Nov 18 | $3 | +$2 | +82% |
| Devils vs. Lightning | Nov 18 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Kraken vs. Red Wings | Nov 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Canucks vs. Panthers | Nov 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Wild | Nov 17 | $4 | +$5 | +117% |
| Hurricanes vs. Bruins | Nov 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Avalanche | Nov 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Canucks vs. Lightning | Nov 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Canadiens | Nov 16 | $1 | +$1 | +133% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks | Nov 16 | $3 | +$3 | +113% |
| Predators vs. Penguins | Nov 16 | $4 | +$4 | +89% |
| Red Wings vs. Rangers | Nov 16 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? | Nov 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Blues | Nov 15 | $2 | +$2 | +122% |
| Islanders vs. Utah | Nov 15 | $2 | +$3 | +170% |
| Islanders vs. Golden Knights | Nov 14 | $4 | +$7 | +170% |
| Devils vs. Capitals | Nov 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Hurricanes | Nov 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ducks vs. Wild | Nov 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Blue Jackets | Nov 14 | $6 | +$6 | +100% |
| Rangers vs. Lightning | Nov 13 | $1 | +$1 | +117% |
| Ducks vs. Red Wings | Nov 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Maple Leafs | Nov 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 147 | -9.7% | -18.3% | 45% | 39% | -21.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.3% | 39% | -21.0% |
| 10% | -26.1% | 37% | -28.6% |
| 15% | -33.3% | 34% | -35.5% |
| 20% | -39.8% | 34% | -41.8% |