Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x714d…8a15
crypto · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$95 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$88 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day63.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 29¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $62 −$31 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $185 −$129 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $92 +$56 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $117 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$103
other 2% +$9
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 38% -16.0%
≤30d 77 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 38% -16.0%
≤90d 77 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 38% -16.0%
all 77 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 38% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 26% -24.0%
15% -43.2% 21% -31.4%
20% -48.7% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $1.69 (match) · 305 history records