Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x714b…6c2f
world · 7 markets active 4d ago
4.5score
+$21,081 +196%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21,219 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$21,219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage99d
Avg bet$1,537
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14,870
14 days+$18,661
30 days+$18,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $3,079 +$14,870 +483%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 06 $2,213 +$3,791 +171%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $499 +$3,658 +732%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 17 $3,412 −$1,159 -34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $183 +$59 +32%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $340 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$18,661
world 41% +$2,558
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,996 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $2,543 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,530 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,750 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 94¢ $4,166 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 94¢ $473 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 94¢ $24 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $6 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 24d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $43 24d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $73 24d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $310 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,157 35d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $35 56d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2,253 57d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $876 58d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $5,998 58d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $499 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 67d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $70 67d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+199.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +483.0% +427.5% 100% 100% +427.5%
≤30d 2 +327.2% +286.5% 100% 100% +309.6%
≤90d 6 +230.9% +199.3% 67% 67% +187.9%
all 6 +230.9% +199.3% 67% 67% +187.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +199.3% 67% +187.9%
10% +170.7% 67% +160.3%
15% +144.5% 50% +135.2%
20% +120.6% 50% +112.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.47 · official $5.47 (match) · 219 history records