trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 79¢ | $23,384 | $23,610 | +$226 (+1%) |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 42¢ | $19,897 | $21,250 | +$1,353 (+7%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 6¢ | 4¢ | $24,148 | $18,000 | −$6,148 (-25%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $6,287 | $2,674 | −$3,613 (-57%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $2,829 | $1,230 | −$1,599 (-57%) |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $359 | $5 | −$354 (-99%) |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $107 | $2 | −$106 (-99%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $6,817 | $0 | −$6,817 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $21,063 | +$18,937 | +90% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $15,723 | +$24,284 | +154% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 12 | $9,515 | −$6,927 | -73% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 09 | $4,521 | +$2,804 | +62% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | May 30 | $600 | +$29 | +5% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | May 29 | $475 | +$29 | +6% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 | May 26 | $83 | −$19 | -23% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | May 19 | $524 | −$524 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar | Apr 16 | $543 | −$543 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Apr 16 | $83 | −$83 | -100% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 16 | $275 | −$275 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 16 | $1,116 | +$2,478 | +222% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Apr 16 | $29,444 | −$29,444 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Apr 16 | $88,455 | −$88,455 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 16 | $2,062 | −$2,062 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan | Jan 16 | $129 | +$1,011 | +785% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Jan 08 | $628 | −$628 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +536.1% | +475.5% | 75% | 75% | +66.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +254.1% | +220.3% | 62% | 38% | +62.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +110.3% | +90.3% | 40% | 27% | -54.1% |
| all | 17 | +137.6% | +115.0% | 41% | 29% | -53.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +115.0% | 29% | -53.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +94.4% | 29% | -58.2% |
| 15% | +75.6% | 29% | -62.2% |
| 20% | +58.4% | 29% | -65.9% |