Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7149…7631 crypto 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$43
14 days−$143
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$155
world 28% +$188
sports 3% −$4
tech 2% −$28
other 2% −$31
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -53.0% -57.5% 0% 0% -44.6%
≤30d 32 -24.1% -31.3% 41% 22% -21.2%
≤90d 46 +6.1% -4.0% 41% 28% -10.8%
all 46 +6.1% -4.0% 41% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 28% -10.8%
10% -13.2% 22% -19.3%
15% -21.6% 20% -27.1%
20% -29.3% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage71d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 36¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$31 -60%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $158 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$40 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$14 +90%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 04 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $61 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $86 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 02 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 02 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $87 −$30 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 02 $107 −$18 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $72 +$7 +10%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 01 $10 −$2 -23%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 01 $31 −$25 -82%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $60 +$10 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $120 +$9 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$23 +124%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 17 $30 −$5 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 18 $2 +$2 +89%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 18 $40 −$8 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $25 +$27 +108%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 08 $4 +$1 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $20 +$85 +426%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $15 +$150 +1003%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $34 6d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 0¢ $0 8d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 20¢ $15 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $99 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.26 · official $46.23 (match) · 226 history records