Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7147…ab83 crypto 251 markets active 7h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$800 (-3%) realized −$808 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%154W / 95L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$309
other 16% −$193
sports 8% −$217
politics 2% −$87
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.2% -26.0% 57% 47% -14.5%
≤30d 77 -19.5% -27.2% 60% 39% -15.9%
≤90d 77 -19.5% -27.2% 60% 39% -15.9%
all 249 -11.0% -19.5% 62% 41% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 41% -11.7%
10% -27.2% 24% -20.2%
15% -34.2% 13% -27.9%
20% -40.7% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$31 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$808
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses154 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)249 / 251
History coverage234d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$27 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$7 -59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$16 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $12 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.63 · official $47.63 (match) · 570 history records