Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x7147…9a01 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,129 (-5%) realized −$1,129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%42W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$39
14 days−$363
30 days+$973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,577
sports 37% +$977
other 16% −$601
world 1% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.3% +6.1% 40% 40% -12.3%
≤30d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 35% +3.2%
≤90d 31 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 35% +3.2%
all 152 -13.6% -21.9% 28% 28% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -14.7%
10% -29.3% 28% -22.8%
15% -36.2% 27% -30.3%
20% -42.4% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$126 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses42 / 110
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage258d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $208 −$189 -91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $64 +$145 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $251 −$248 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$149 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $166 −$66 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$110 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $159 −$153 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$286 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $135 −$127 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $89 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $117 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $119 −$114 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $219 −$216 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $117 −$111 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 04 $308 −$191 -62%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $559 −$548 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $266 −$260 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5PM ET Jun 02 $499 +$558 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET Jun 02 $206 +$293 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $306 +$111 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $452 +$779 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $174 +$760 +438%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $263 −$258 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $46 −$44 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $876 +$983 +112%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $399 −$392 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $219 +$316 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 31 $227 −$224 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jan 20 $342 +$523 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 19 $116 −$115 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $344 −$228 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7AM ET Jan 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4PM ET Jan 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) Jan 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11AM ET Jan 13 $172 +$291 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET Jan 06 $98 −$98 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $220 −$66 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $56 +$107 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6AM ET Jan 06 $199 −$199 -100%
Brisbane International: Karolina Muchova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jan 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 1PM ET Jan 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12PM ET Jan 05 $53 +$234 +440%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 46m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 4¢ $19 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $208 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $209 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $64 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $251 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $102 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 10¢ $100 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $166 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $58 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $159 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $468 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $167 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $135 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $89 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $117 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $110 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $216 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $117 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 SELL Over 10¢ $117 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 25¢ $104 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records