Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
71 0x7145…1d17 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$6
other 22% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 3 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 3 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 0% -8.1%
all 3 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 0% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 0% -8.1%
10% -16.7% 0% -16.9%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3 · ×8.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage7d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? No 91¢ 91¢ $449 $449 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 19 $456 −$5 -1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $354 +$25 +7%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 91¢ $449 10m
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 90¢ $451 17m
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 91¢ $456 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 91¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $354 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $356 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $357 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.63 · official $448.63 (match) · 8 history records