Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x7143…aa89 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-11%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%45W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$36
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$51
other 31% −$29
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -4.3% -13.4% 66% 27% -18.3%
≤30d 73 -8.0% -16.8% 62% 23% -20.7%
≤90d 73 -8.0% -16.8% 62% 23% -20.7%
all 73 -8.0% -16.8% 62% 23% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 23% -20.7%
10% -24.7% 16% -28.3%
15% -32.0% 12% -35.2%
20% -38.7% 8% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses45 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +35%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 44m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 47h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 47h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.15 · official $5.15 (match) · 139 history records